Photo: OECD


Mexican President Andrés Manuel López (AMLO) may not put much stock in the downgrades issued in recent weeks by the Big Three international credit agencies, Fitch, Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s, but the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) certainly seems to.

In its latest global economic forecast, published on Wednesday, March 6, the organization slashed growth predictions for the Mexican economy, forecasting that the country’s GDP will expand by just 2 percent in 2019, down .5 percentage points from its prognosis in November 2018.

Despite warnings from international financial analysts, AMLO, who is not an economist, has steadfastly maintained that the Mexican economy will grow by 4 percent this year.

But the OECD, in its quarterly Perspectives publication, also said that Mexico will not register much growth next year either, predicting a 2.3 percent expansion for 2020, down from its 2.6 prediction in November.

The OECD said that Mexico’s expected 2 percent economic growth will be a reflection of increased financial remittances from Mexicans living abroad, a rise in the minimum wage, promised government infrastructure investments and a predicted revival of energy production.

It also said that a decrease in inflation could lead to relaxed monetary policies.

Many Mexican financial institutions have painted an even grimmer perspective for economic growth in 2019, including the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), which last week predicted a 1.6 percent growth, and Citibanamex, which has forecasted a 1.4 percent expansion.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a 2.1 percent growth for Mexico in 2019.

Worldwide, the OECD said that there will be a 3.3 percent growth in 2019 and 3.4 percent growth in 2020.



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