AMLO on Track for Mexico’s Most Violent Presidency

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Photo: Google


Just three and a half years into his six-year term, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and his administration are on track to have the most violent presidency in Mexico’s recent history, already surpassing that of former President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa as of May’s homicide figures, and he is anticipated to surpass that of his immediate predecessor, former President Enrique Peña Nieto before the conclusion of his term.

The estimates come after Mexico had its most violent month of the year so far in May, when 2,833 homicides were registered – 279 up from the month prior, a 10.9 percent increase.

With May’s figures taken into account, there have been more than 121,000 homicides during the López Obrador administration, already exceeding the 120,463 homicides committed throughout the six years of Calderón’s tenure. 

“On the quantitative side, the data confirms that Mexico is going through the most violent times in contemporary history, that we are stuck in lethal violence and that if the trend continues, this will be the most violent six-year period in the country’s recent history,” said security consultant and author Ricardo Márquez Blas.

“Clearly, the violence now is more serious than what existed previously, especially due to the greater participation of organized crime in lethal violence, which has gone from 45 percent in the last year of Enrique Peña Nieto to approximately 76 percent, as the authorities have stated.”

Mexico’s continued trend toward violence stands in stark contrast from López Obrador’s electoral campaign promises, when he promised “organized crime will be reduced and withdrawn.”

With two and a half years of his presidency remaining, AMLO’s administration is already creeping closer and closer to surpassing the 156,385 homicides committed underneath Peña Nieto. Currently averaging approximately 34,000 homicides per year throughout his term, if the violence in Mexico continues to remain on pace, López Obrador is forecasted to exceed the Peña Nieto administration’s violence within the next year and a half.