By MARK LORENZANA
In the second quarter of this year, outflow of capital from Mexico totaled $5.74 billion, a figure 88.9 percent higher than the previous quarter.
For the ninth consecutive quarter, the country has registered capital flight, according to figures from the Central Bank of Mexico (Banxico).
Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, explained that the covid-19 pandemic caused the outflow of capital from emerging markets, including Mexico, as registered in 2020 and 2021.
Siller warned that this seemingly irreversible trend is worrying, and has been brought about not only by insecurity and governance, but also by internal economic policies.
“The economic reform initiatives that have been carried out are seen as policies that do not lead to greater growth and are even perceived as somewhat erratic, like when the New Mexico International Airport (NAIM) was canceled,” Siller said. “Right now, another main risk are the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) consultations, which are not convenient for Mexico. And all this uncertainty in the country, what is it causing? Larger capital outflows.”
For her part, Janneth Quiroz, deputy director of economic analysis at the Monex Financial Group, said that although capital flight continues to be reported, it is much less than what was registered in 2021, when risk aversion increased significantly due to the covid-19 pandemic.
However, Quiroz said that other new factors have emerged that could worsen capital outflow from Mexico, chief among them the concern of a possible recession in the United States.
The nine consecutive quarters of capital flight is one of the longest periods on record, and has equaled the second-longest streak recorded in the country, which occurred from the second quarter of 1986 to the second quarter of 1988.
The longest period of outflow so far is 10 quarters, which was recorded from the fourth quarter of 1982 to the first quarter of 1985.