OPINION

By ANTONIO GARZA, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico

As we embark on 2024, I want to pause to review 2023, a year unlike any other in both geopolitics and the economic uncertainty.

It’s clear that words like uncertainty, complexity and polycrisis dominated.

But last year, to quote Ian Bremmer, “the wheels were coming off,” and radical geopolitical uncertainty was the norm, and is likely here to stay for the foreseeable future.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict continues to grind on, while war in the Middle East threatens to involve others in the region.

Against that backdrop, tensions oscillate between the United States and China, with Beijing’s ambitions in the Pacific and Taiwan are never too far from the surface.

The combination of these events has exacted a very real human toll, compounded economic uncertainty and has brought into sharp focus U.S. political polarization.

The sum of which raise questions about the United States’ role in the world, especially with Washington still gripped by negotiations on immigration reform in exchange for funding for our allies, though, the U.S. House did manage to push through a defense bill with bipartisan support.

On Dec, 13, the U,s, Federal Reserve announced that it would leave interest rates as is for remainder of the year, with economic growth closing at 2.1 percent for 2023.

Overall, in 2024 the global economy risks slowing momentum, impacted not only by multiple wars, but also by lingering pandemic stressors.

Inflation stubbornly hangs on, though in the United States it has seemingly stabilized.

China’s economic outlook for 2024 has improved slightly, though it is expected to slow this year.

From a European perspective, RBC expects growth to stall at 0.7 percent in 2024, up only slightly from 0.5 percent in 2023.

And real concerns center around the debt crisis with dozens of the poorest nations already in default or likely to soon miss payments on the trillions they owe.

To add to the overall sense of foreboding, 40 countries are holding national elections this year, including both the United States and Mexico.

While we can’t anticipate the outcomes of all of these elections, we can be certain of additional political transition in the largest election year to date.

With the sum of these unknowns, I can’t help but echo academics, investors and officials alike: The world is facing perhaps its most tumultuous year in a generation.

In June 2024, Mexicans will head to the polls casting their own ballots for more than 20,000 posts, including Mexico’s next president.

In Mexico’s race for president, most third-party candidates have now dropped out.

Polls continue to show front-runner Claudia Sheinbaum holding a consistent lead over opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez.

Despite the uncertainty associated with the upcoming elections, Mexico’s economic outlook for 2024 looks relatively stable, given a combination of U.S. demand, government spending and remittances.

BBVA estimates a growth of 2.6 percent for 2024, with inflation expected to stay under 4 percent.

On the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) front, the Washington lost its claim on auto parts rules of origin while the panel on GMO corn is set to be decided by March 2024.

U.S. and Mexican officials spent the last months of 2023 tackling a host of bilateral issues.

In November, Presidents Joe Biden and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) held a bilateral meeting at the APEC conference expressing a shared desire to tackle irregular migration and drug trafficking.

The United States and Mexico also put in a bid to host the 2027 Women’s World Cup.

Finally, on Dec. 5, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited Mexico, making a push for nearshoring to keep China from investing in North American companies.

During her visit, Yellen also announced new sanctions against 15 individuals and two Mexican companies linked to fentanyl trafficking.

Overall, fentanyl continues to be a priority, and as such, parallel to Yellen’s visit to Mexico, the Biden administration announced the establishment of a “counter-fentanyl strike force.”

This comes after the United States announced sanctions against 13 Sinaloa Cartel members for fentanyl trafficking, and two Mexican men were indicted in Kansas for fentanyl distribution late last year.

In early December, Mexican migration director Francisco Garduño announced the suspension of deportations in Mexico, citing a lack of funds.

Along similar lines, in December, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced the closure of the Lukeville, Arizona, port of entry, with CBP officers redeployed to assist Border Patrol agents to process the increasing number of migrants crossing irregularly in Arizona.

While announcements from both countries show signs of insufficient funding this year, and indeed that seems to be the case globally.