OPINION

PART 1

First in a seven-part series

By LILA ABED and ANDREW I. RUDMAN

Mexico’s June 2, 2024, election will be the largest and most consequential in the country’s history. In addition to electing a president (very possibly the country’s first female president), voters will choose members of both chambers of Congress and numerous governors, state legislators and mayors.

Changes to Mexico’s election law will also facilitate the ability of Mexicans living abroad to cast ballots. These elections are significant not solely due to their size nor the gender of possible victors, but also because of the breadth and depth of the issues that will confront whoever takes office on Oct, 1, 2024.

All new leaders take office facing challenges and opportunities and Mexico’s next president will be no different. It is worth noting, however, that this presidential transition is a full two months shorter as inauguration day was moved forward from the traditional Dec. 1 date.

Given the panoply of issues the new president will face and the limited time available to develop strategies to address them, the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute has prepared a series of recommendations on six of the most salient issues for consideration by the presidential candidates and their campaign teams. The series addresses energy, migration, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and North America, security, water and nearshoring. Each of these issues is relevant to Mexico, to the Mexico-U.S bilateral relationship and to citizens on both sides of the border.

While there will be many other issues on the new president’s agenda, success in addressing those included in this booklet will help to spur economic growth, improve the quality of life of Mexican citizens and create an even more productive relationship with the United States. Strong collaboration with Mexico’s northern neighbor and top trading partner must be a key facet of the strategy to resolve many of the “intermestic” challenges that Mexico’s new leader will face. While this series does not directly or specifically address the 2024 U.S. elections, they will certainly impact the relationship the new Mexican president will have with her/his U.S. counterpart following the Jan. 20, 2025, inauguration.

Each topic in this series offers an overview of the current status of the issues and obstacles facing Mexico’s next president followed by a series of policy recommendations. Given the complex nature of public policy, in some cases, recommendations to address one issue overlap with those provided in another section. In the interest of brevity, some aspects or elements of the selected topics were not included, which should not be understood to suggest they are not important or relevant. There are also numerous issues (e.g.: finance and budgets, climate change, health, democratic institutions), that were not covered despite their salience.

The section on energy addresses the need for new infrastructure and regulatory reform that will allow Mexico to deliver needed reliable electricity to fuel nearshoring and better integrate the southern parts of the country into the power grid. Sustainable use of fossil fuels and the energy trilemma are also covered in this section.

Migration is perhaps the consummate intermestic issue facing the next president. The section highlights Mexico’s changing role as a country of emigration, transit and destination and recommends that these three pillars, previously seen as independent of each other, be considered simultaneously.

For Mexico to capitalize on the nearshoring boom, it must address the issues of workforce development, energy, security and infrastructure. This section also stresses opportunities to attract nearshoring beyond the northern part of the country. Taking steps to attract nearshoring will also improve the domestic business climate.

The section on security provides policy recommendations on how to prevent and effectively combat issues such as border infrastructure and cybersecurity, femicide and violence against journalists and politicians. It also delves into the security
challenges Mexico shares with the United States, including illicit arms trafficking, illicitly manufactured fentanyl and rebuilding trust between security agencies on both sides of the border.

The USMCA section focuses on the critical role that the USMCA should continue to play in enhancing prosperity and economic competitiveness in North America. The section emphasizes the need to fully implement the agreement to reinforce its credibility and urges all three parties to resolve important trade disputes ahead of the agreement’s 2026 review and also identifies additional trilateral opportunities to address common challenges.

The potential for water to negatively impact Mexico’s development and the bilateral relationship with the United States is underappreciated. The section on water highlights the urgent need to respond to water insecurity and climate change through infrastructure investment and improved management of the 1944 bilateral water treaty.

We do not expect that all of the recommendations will be adopted as written. We hope that the candidates and their teams will find them worthy of consideration and further exploration as they develop their own policies and that others interested in Mexican public policy and the bilateral relationship will find them equally relevant.

The above article is part of a seven-part series first published by the Wilson Center Mexico Institute and is being republished in Pulse News Mexico with express prior permission.