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By KELIN DILLON

Just one day before U.S. President Donald J. Trump was set to announce the full scope of his reciprocal tariffs during his so-called “Liberation Day” on Wednesday, April 2, Mexico’s Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) adjusted its 2025 economic forecast for the nation in anticipation of its leading trade partner’s economic sanctions.

According to the Mexican Treasury’s updated numbers in its General Preliminary Criteria for Economic Policy report, Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is poised to grow between 1.5 and 2.3 percent during 2025, at an average of 1.9 percent in 2025.

This marks a .4 percent decline from the 2.3 percent GDP growth average it previously estimated in its 2025 Economic Package.

The Treasury also updated its predictions for 2026, lowering its growth estimates from 2 and 3 percent down to 1.5 and 2.5 percent for the year.

The SHCP revision was reportedly spurred by slowdowns in real estate investment, the oil refining industry and lingering supply chain issues from the preceding year.

This, paired with the uncertainty of foreign trade policy with the United States and other global trading partners due to Trump’s tariffs, has caused increased wariness in private investment in Mexico, leading to slower economic activity. 

“The uncertainty surrounding the direction of US bilateral trade policy and the adjustments in its relationship with other partners has generated a noticeable increase in investment caution, affecting its short-term dynamism,” said the Treasury.

However, despite the SHCP slashes, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) and private investment firms’ predictions for the Mexican economy were less optimistic; according to these groups’ figures, Mexico’s GDP is only anticipated to grow 0.5 percent in 2025 and 1.6 percent in 2026.