CitiBanamex, Mexico’s second-largest bank, issued a statement on Tuesday, Jan. 15, stating that the current gasoline shortage resulting from President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) nationwide offensive against fuel robberies will translate into a loss of nearly 24 billion pesos in the nation’s 2019 Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

That figure represents about .1 percent of the nation’s predicted total GDP for 2019.

Although the government has said that the financial losses resulting from the shortage will be offset by money recovered from huachicoleo (gasoline theft), CitiBanamex said that any gain in revenues from halting the sale of stolen gasoline will be dwarfed by the additional costs of transporting fuel via tankers instead of ducts.

The bank’s statement also said that uncertainty regarding ready access to gasoline will have a trickledown effect on Mexico’s productivity and macro economy.

CitiBanamex analysts added that, if normal gasoline distribution is reinstated nationwide within the next few days, as the AMLO administration has said it will be, there will be an immediate GDP loss of 39 billion pesos.

That loss, they said will be partially compensated for in late January and early February with a bounce-back of about 42 billion pesos in renewed productivity.

AMLO has predicted a 2 percent growth in Mexico’s GDP for 2019, but the Bank of America says that there will only be a 1 percent growth.


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