PART 5

Fifth in a seven-part series

By LILA ABED and CECILIA FARFÁN-MÉNDEZ

Mexico and the United States face interconnected violence and overdose epidemics. The costs in human lives and deterioration of citizens’ security in both countries cannot be overstated. The United States and Mexico must deepen their commitments to strengthening security cooperation, including reducing high levels of violence and economic inequality, improving the rule of law, enhancing border and cybersecurity, and bringing criminals to justice. To be successful, both nations need to rebuild a partnership based on mutual trust and shared responsibility, while respecting each other’s sovereignty and domestic political debates.

Inaction will continue to claim lives on both sides of the border. Preliminary data from the United States shows that nearly 110,000 people died of a preventable drug overdose in 2022, and two-thirds of those (over 75,000) involved a synthetic opioid. While in 2022, the homicide rate in Mexico declined compared to 2021, going from 28 per 100,000 to 25 per 100,000, it remains significantly high compared to the average of 19 for the Americas and the global rate of 6, with egregious violence frequently reported by local and international media.

Excess mortality through homicides and preventable overdoses have pushed illicit firearms trafficking and fentanyl to the top of the bilateral agenda. The urgency to save lives, however, is encouraging some to call for actions that reflect the worst policy failures of the so-called war on drugs in both countries with little attention to evidence-based solutions and joint actions.

Rebuilding Trust

Mexico denies illicitly manufactured fentanyl is produced in the country and has characterized accidental overdoses as a U.S. problem with seemingly little empathy for the loss of life. Disagreement on facts (whether fentanyl is illicitly produced in Mexico or not) has caused additional irritation among many U.S. actors who increasingly question Mexico’s partnership and the political will of Mexico’s leaders to seriously confront cross-border criminal organizations.

Mexico needs to demonstrate that it is serious about collaborating to reduce illicitly manufactured fentanyl production and trafficking and dedicate meaningful resources in Washington, D.C. and subnational levels to change the perilous perception of Mexico’s lack of commitment to improve cross-border security. At minimum, this should include knowledge exchange events with the U.S. Congress, including staffers, governors and mayors and support for civil society and scholars working on bilateral issues.

The United States and Mexico have experience working under a bilateral security agreement. The Merida Initiative (2007-2021), established by Presidents George Bush and Felipe Calderón, offers important lessons on promising practices and areas for improvement that should be used for the successful implementation of the Bicentennial Framework for Security, Public Health, and Safe Communities, entered into by the Joe Biden and Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administrations.

While the Bicentennial Framework and the High-Level Security Dialogue are important institutional mechanisms, tangible results will only occur when measurable outcomes for success are established. This includes reactivating technical trainings and working with subnational partners that continue to improve capacity for law enforcement and the criminal justice system. Capacity building should be accompanied by strengthening transparency policies and making public information more readily available to Mexican citizens and its U.S. security counterparts. Mexico needs to reallocate funds to the National Institute for Transparency, Access to Information and Personal Data Protection (INAI), which has suffered a 24-percent reduction in its budget from 2018 to 2023. Of the 12,570 government databases that should publish important information to the public, 71 percent are currently abandoned and have not been updated in the last 24 months. In addition to increasing transparency efforts, technical training between security agencies on both sides of the border should continue to track, arrest and bring to justice both high-level and mid-level operators within criminal networks.

Illicitly Manufactured Fentanyl

Arrests alone will do little to save lives in Mexico and the United States. However the stigma against substance users will continue causing preventable deaths on both sides of the border. One of the goals of the Bicentennial Framework is to achieve safer communities. Evidence-based drug policies can help achieve this goal. Given the low costs of producing fentanyl, it is unlikely that a supply-side intervention alone could raise costs to the point of dissuading production. However, understanding supply is essential for implementing public health programs that can provide necessary services to users of fentanyl and generate relevant information for law enforcement agencies without targeting users. Justice processes, therefore, should focus on middlemen/women on both sides of the border who profit from drug trafficking instead of users who are better served by public health approaches.

Mexico should remove naloxone, an overdose reversal medication, from its list of controlled substances. The shortage of methadone in Mexico, a safe and effective treatment for opioid use disorder, should also be addressed immediately. The shortage is pushing patients into the black market causing preventable deaths for individuals who were in treatment. Effective drug policies should also consider the environmental impacts of illicit drug production. Meth and synthetic opiate production in Mexico are damaging the environment, impacting the health of local populations as well as ecosystems. If the incoming government seeks to preserve and/or expand the program “Sembrando Vida”—the government’s reforestation program providing monthly stipends and technical training to approximately half a million beneficiaries — then it must consider environmental degradation from illicit drug production, which also aligns with Mexico’s stated goals in multilateral drug policy fora.

The fentanyl crisis has produced an important window of opportunity for the Mexican government to provide licit economic alternatives in areas previously sustained through opium gum income. The collapse of the price in heroin has left communities in Mexico in need of an economic alternative that can provide subsistence to farmers who previously sold opium gum to intermediaries who profited from heroin production. In a potential collaboration with international partners, government actors need to offer viable solutions tailored to each area’s geographic and socioeconomic profile. Equally important, government actors should not assume that introducing licit activities automatically reduces violence. The Mexican context shows that the legal commodities of avocado and limes can also produce high levels of violence through protection rackets.

Illicit Firearms Trafficking

In 2022, an estimated 67.6 percent of homicides committed in Mexico were perpetrated with a firearm of which the Foreign Relations Secretariat (SRE) estimates 200,000 illegally enter Mexico every year from the United States. According to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF), 70 percent of firearms recovered in Mexico between 2014 and 2018 and submitted for tracing were linked to the United States, though the Mexican government believes the estimate to be closer to 90 percent In addition to improving its border controls, Mexico should pay close attention to the implementation of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (BSCA), passed by the Biden administration. Among other provisions, the BSCA established federal criminal offenses for straw purchasing (any purchase in which a second person agrees to acquire a firearm for someone else) and trafficking. Mexican agencies should seek meaningful cooperation with U.S. counterparts by exchanging intelligence and liaison units that help prosecutors and the ATF in the successful implementation of the BSCA.

Changing Violence Dynamics — Gender, Journalism and Democracy

Illicit activities have expanded in Mexico, but it is misguided to attribute all violence to “narcos fighting for territorial control.” It is imperative to consider how violence has shifted in the last 15 years in Mexico and how policies need to respond to these changes. For instance, femicide rates continue to soar in the country, since 2018, an average of 10 women are killed every day because of their gender and according to official figures. This crime increased by 137 percent between 2015 and 2021.

Budget cuts to the social safety net including subsidies for child care and funding for shelters for those escaping domestic violence have also increased the vulnerability of women.

As of May 2022, more than 100,000 people are missing or have disappeared in Mexico with their whereabouts still unknown. As reported by families, disappearances cannot be exclusively attributed to criminal actors but also occur in collusion with or are perpetrated by state actors. The lack of identification of human remains has also produced an officially recognized forensic crisis where U.S. collaboration remains important for identifying missing individuals. Mexico should take advantage of the forensic experts trained by U.S. authorities to identify and locate the remains of the disappeared in Mexico and return them to their families.

Credible threats of lethal and non-lethal forms of violence are also deteriorating Mexico’s democracy by targeting journalists, public officials and/or individuals running for office. Today, Mexico is the deadliest country for journalists outside of a war zone, with 13 killed for their work in 2022, eight murdered so far in 2023, and the majority of these cases remain unresolved. According to the Survey on the Quality of Mexican Democracy (ENCADE, per its Spanish acronym), 57 percent of Mexicans believe criminal groups can influence federal elections. A report by Etellekt documented the murder of 91 politicians in the 2021 midterm elections, of which 22 were aspiring candidates and another 14 of whom had officially registered their campaigns. It was the second-most violent electoral process since 2000 and exceeded only by the 2018 midterm elections that left 152 politicians (48 aspiring or registered candidates) dead. In addition, according to a Global Witness Report, Mexico has become one of the deadliest places in the world for environmental and land defense activists, with 54 activists killed in 2021.

Border Infrastructure and Cybersecurity

Since October 2022, Mexico registered more than 85 billion attempted cyber attacks, making it the country with the highest numbers of attacks in the Western Hemisphere. According to the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico, cybercrime generates losses of between $3 billion to $5 billion in Mexico annually. Mexico’s vulnerabilities were exposed in late 2022 by the hacktivist group Guacamaya that leaked 4 million emails from Mexico’s Secretariat of National Defense (Sedena). Guacamaya exploited a well-known vulnerability in Microsoft servers and a switch to cheaper but less secure servers than a national security institution should use.

The USMCA’s Chapter 19 on Digital Trade includes a section on cybersecurity (Article 19.15) that presses all parties to not only build the capabilities of their respective national entities to respond to cyberattacks but also to encourage enterprises within their jurisdictions to adopt best practices to identify, protect and recover from cybersecurity incidents. The High-Level Economic Dialogue has proven helpful in strengthening bilateral cybersecurity cooperation efforts. Both countries have exchanged best practices in the implementation of new technologies in telecommunications and ICT infrastructure. Ensuring proper implementation and adoption of these measures to strengthen Mexico’s cybersecurity capacities will be critical in enhancing coordination efforts at the U.S.-Mexico border. NALS and HLED also call for cybersecurity cooperation.

Both countries need better communication systems between law  enforcement agencies on either side of the border. That will require deploying emerging technologies, such as AI, to reduce waiting times at ports of entry and the environmental impacts they produce, making cross-border trade more efficient and improving border security. Mexico must remain committed to reinforcing its cybersecurity capabilities and its ability to prevent and recover from cyberattacks before its counterparts share smarter and innovative technologies. To actively prevent becoming the weakest link in North America, Mexico must work with its partners, invest more resources, train a new generation of experts and implement a strategy to effectively combat cybersecurity threats and guarantee a secure and reliable Internet and a stable cyberspace.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Rebuilding Trust

Work with U.S. counterparts to address illicit flows and those profiting from criminal activities on both sides of the border.

Lobby key partners in Washington D.C. and state actors focused on Mexico’s commitment to a safe North American region.

Establish a vetting system for law enforcement officials that is acceptable and effective for both countries to promote bilateral cooperation, transparency and increase information sharing.

Foster political will and reactivate inter-agency collaborations and trainings that foster a sense of camaraderie to enhance collaboration and trust.

Promote and allocate resources for sub-national levels of collaboration both in the United States and Mexico.

The United States and Mexico must establish clear definitions for shared challenges and reach an agreement on how to best approach each of them.

Establish a mutually agreed upon mechanism for evaluating and measuring joint efforts and operations results.

Synthetic Opioids

Remove naloxone from the list of controlled substances in Mexico.

Remedy methadone shortage in Mexico. Invest in a supply chain analysis including distributors in the United States.

Produce evidence-based messaging on the medical uses of fentanyl and its key differences with illicitly manufactured fentanyl.

Use the window of opportunity that the increased demand for fentanyl has generated in opium-growing regions.

Illicit Firearms Trafficking

Improve border controls including meaningful assessment of how different technology providers could impact the relationship with the United States.

Improve data collection and sharing with stakeholders including civil society and academia.

Monitor the implementation of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (BSCA).

Cooperate with U.S. counterparts and reestablish liaison units that can assist the ATF and prosecutors with implementing of the BSCA regarding straw purchases and trafficking.

Revert to a decentralized form of cooperation that allows state actors to work with U.S. counterparts in the Department of Justice. This decentralization could include firearms tracing.

Femicide Crisis in Mexico

Restore funding for social safety net programs that improve women’s financial independence and ability to escape domestic violence.

Establish a single legal framework and criminal categorization for determining gender-based crimes in all Mexican states.

Create a sex offenders register open to the public.

Pass a bill that grants women the right to know about their partner’s history of violence.

Establish the definitive loss of custody or guardianship for perpetrators of femicide nationally.

Implement gender education programs in schools geared towards students and teachers.

Train first responders, all police, expert witnesses, judicial police and prosecutors, and equip them with the necessary resources to assist victims with a gender perspective.

Border Security

Reach agreement on the deployment of innovative and smarter technologies to enhance border security measures that will tackle drug and arms trafficking and detect other illicit goods.

Mexico should bolster its efforts to search for firearms coming from the United States.

Establish better coordination and communications systems between law enforcement agencies on both sides of the border.

Cybersecurity

Develop a national cybersecurity strategy in coordination with multilateral organizations.

Establish a cyber prosecutor with sufficient resources to counter transnational organized crime. Update and adopt new laws to establish a cybersecurity framework and ensure compliance.

Strengthen collaboration between institutions in all three levels of government, the private sector and civil society to reduce cyber risk and better respond to cyberattacks.

Enact counterterrorism actions at the U.S.-Mexico border, such as enhanced intelligence-sharing, continuous strategic analysis and assessment of potential threats.

Invest in digital and critical infrastructure and training programs to build a cybersecurity workforce capable of preventing, responding and recovering from cyberattacks.

Implement educational programs to train security personnel and individual users on safe online practices.

The above article is part of a seven-part series first published by the Wilson Center Mexico Institute and is being republished in Pulse News Mexico with express prior permission.